Bitcoin has recorded an impressive rebound, surging from a recent low near $109,000 to almost $120,000 in just a few sessions.
This move reflects strong demand, supported by institutional inflows through ETFs and growing expectations that U.S. monetary policy may be approaching a phase of easing.
The rally also underscores Bitcoin’s expanding role in global portfolios, serving both as a risk asset and as a hedge against financial and geopolitical uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s recovery has been closely tied to the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar and the stabilization of U.S. real yields.
Fresh economic data paint a “warm but uneven” picture: ADP disappointed with the steepest decline in 2.5 years (-32K), the ISM Manufacturing Index remained below 50 signalling contraction, while housing market indicators and durable goods orders surprised to the upside. This divergence makes it difficult for the Fed to set a clear stance, yet it strengthens expectations that interest rates have already peaked, lowering the opportunity cost of holding assets such as Bitcoin.
Nonetheless, risks remain if upcoming labour market data (NFP, unemployment rate, wage growth) come in unexpectedly strong. In that case, the “higher-for-longer” scenario could resurface, boosting the dollar and undermining Bitcoin’s current momentum. In such a volatile environment, BTC tends to react sharply, with the potential for strong pullbacks after a rapid upswing.
Another factor worth noting is the U.S. government’s official shutdown beginning October 1. This is not only a fiscal risk affecting public spending and market confidence, but it may also disrupt the release of key economic reports. Should data such as NFP, CPI, or GDP be delayed, the market would lack the basis to shape expectations around the Fed, heightening volatility and making data-sensitive assets like Bitcoin harder to forecast. In other words, the shutdown represents not just a political and fiscal risk, but also a threat to data transparency — the very compass guiding global investors.
The growing presence of Bitcoin ETFs has created a more stable capital base, reducing the dominance of speculative flows in the crypto market. Consistent ETF inflows suggest that institutional investors increasingly view Bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio, in some cases substituting gold or technology stocks. Compared to 2020–2021, when retail flows dominated, today’s market structure appears more sustainable, limiting the risk of a speculative bubble.
In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate sideways as it approaches its previous highs. If upcoming data show a cooling labour market and easing inflation, the dollar could weaken further, paving the way for Bitcoin to push into new record territory. Conversely, a string of “hot” data could push real yields higher again, increasing the risk of a correction.
From a medium-term perspective, the outlook remains tilted to the upside thanks to Bitcoin’s scarce supply structure, growing institutional participation, and its increasingly clear role within the global financial system. Still, the asset’s high volatility and the presence of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks suggest that the most prudent strategy is selective accumulation during pullbacks rather than chasing steep rallies.
