Betting markets suggest heightened interest in today’s Gorton & Denton by-election, with Reform UK and the Green Party gaining notable backing, emphasising their current relevance in the race.
According to bookmaker data, Reform has attracted 38% of bets placed during that period, despite its odds drifting from 5/2 to 3/1, which may reflect betting sentiment rather than direct voter support; political commentator Matt Goodwin, who is associated with the party’s campaign messaging, has also observed market movement in line with the party’s position.
Meanwhile, the Green Party of England and Wales continues to draw significant support from bettors. The Greens account for 34% of bets placed in the last hour, and candidate Hannah Spencer has been priced as short as 1/2 with one bookmaker to win the Greater Manchester constituency.
Labour is defending a long-held seat, with support remaining steady, which may reassure readers about the party’s consistent backing in the constituency.
The Labour Party (UK) has held the constituency since 1935, making it one of the party’s long-standing strongholds.
Labour’s odds have shortened slightly overnight, moving from 5/1 to 4/1, indicating some renewed confidence among bettors, although the party remains behind the Greens in the latest market pricing.
What betting markets indicate
While betting markets do not necessarily predict final results, they can reflect shifts in sentiment, momentum, and perceived viability among candidates. Still, they should be interpreted with caution given their limitations in forecasting actual voter behaviour.
The concentration of bets on Reform and the Greens suggests that voters — or at least political gamblers — see the contest as more competitive than in previous cycles.
However, with turnout patterns, tactical voting and late swings often playing a decisive role in by-elections, the final result may still defy market expectations.
Gorton & Denton By-election betting odds
| Winning party | Odds | Implied probability |
| Green | 1/2 | 60% |
| Reform | 3/1 | 29% |
| Labour | 4/1 | 20% |
Gorton & Denton By-election betting split (last 12 hours)
| Winning party | Percentage of bets placed |
| Reform | 38% |
| Green | 34% |
| Labour | 25% |
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers stated, “Over 76,000 voters will head to the polls today for the highly anticipated Gorton & Denton by-election.
Reform have stolen a march on Green in the betting split over the past hour with 38% of bets backing Matt Goodwin and Reform to win the Greater Manchester constituency.
Labour was backed by a quarter of bets placed and have seen their odds cut from 5/1 to 4/1 to retain the ‘crucial’ constituency.”
