Britain may face a significant oil and gas supply shortfall within months if disruptions in the Middle East continue, energy experts have warned.
This concern arises as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed due to escalating hostilities involving Iran, threatening a critical global energy chokepoint through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil typically flows.
The UK consumes approximately 1.4 million barrels of oil per day, with domestic production from the North Sea accounting for roughly half of that demand. The other half relies heavily on imports.
Industry figures indicate that the government might have to activate emergency contingency powers, which could involve restricting fuel purchases at petrol stations or limiting their operating hours if shortages worsen.
Shipping analysts from Lloyd’s List suggest that even with military escorts, oil flows through the strait might only recover to 8-10% of normal levels.
GB News reported that energy expert Nick Butler, a former head of strategy at BP, cautioned that the situation could quickly become serious if the waterway remains closed for several more weeks.
“At the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is almost completely closed, and we’re losing about 20 million barrels a day,” he told Times Radio.
“That’s one-fifth of global demand. If this continues, there will be a real shortage of supply worldwide, including in the UK.”
Butler added that the government may need to prioritise fuel supplies for essential services, such as food distribution, hospitals, schools, and transport networks, suggesting that such measures would effectively amount to rationing. Without proper preparation, he warned that the crisis could trigger panic buying within three to four weeks.
Professor Paul de Leeuw from the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University noted that Britain’s energy imports—mainly from the United States and Norway—could be redirected to countries willing to pay higher prices.
“We are not going to run out of oil,” he said, “but we could experience a period when we need to prioritise supply to protect essential services and vulnerable communities.”
He also pointed out the UK’s reduced refining capacity, noting that only four refineries remain operational today, down from 17 in the 1970s, leaving the country more vulnerable to supply shocks.
Several countries reliant on Gulf energy have already begun implementing rationing measures, including Bangladesh, which has restricted petrol and diesel sales, and India, which has prioritised household gas over industrial use.
Under existing emergency powers, the UK government could limit fuel purchases, control distribution, and prioritise deliveries to emergency services and public transport.
However, for the time being, the strait remains effectively closed to Britain. Iran’s foreign minister stated that the route is “only closed to our enemies and those who carried out unjust aggression against our country and their allies.”
