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Russia is expected to continue its drawn-out conflict in Ukraine, which is characterised as a war of attrition, until a formal peace agreement is achieved.
This assessment was presented by Tulsi Gabbard, the US Director of National Intelligence, during her address to the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday.
In her statement, Gabbard stressed that, over the past year, Moscow has managed to retain a strategic advantage in the conflict.
She emphasised the Kremlin’s willingness to pursue its objectives through a combination of military actions and diplomatic manoeuvres, indicating a multifaceted approach to achieving its goals in Ukraine.
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“US-led negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv are currently ongoing,” she explained. “Until such an agreement is reached, it is likely that Moscow will continue to engage in a protracted war of attrition, believing that it can achieve its objectives in the long run.”
Furthermore, Gabbard raised concerns about the escalating risks associated with the conflict, particularly the potential for nuclear weapons to be employed. She noted that Russia can challenge US interests globally, heightening the stakes of the ongoing war and underscoring the broader implications for international security.
Referencing research from last autumn, Gabbard mentioned a report from the Institute for the Study of War, which observed that the Kremlin is operating under Vladimir Putin’s “theory of victory.”
This strategy hinges on leveraging a greater numerical advantage in military personnel and resources to outlast Western support for Ukraine. The aim is to gradually wear down Ukraine’s defence forces, thereby increasing the likelihood that Russia will achieve its military and political objectives.
Additionally, social surveys conducted in Ukraine reveal a troubling trend: public optimism regarding a swift resolution to the conflict is diminishing. This decline in hope reflects the deepening human and strategic toll inflicted by the ongoing hostilities, which continue to disrupt daily life and economic stability.
Gabbard’s analysis coincides with rising concerns in Washington that Russia’s long-term strategy may fundamentally test the limits of Western patience and support for Ukraine.
As the conflict evolves, there is potential for significant shifts in the war’s trajectory, with far-reaching consequences not only for the region but also for global diplomatic relations.
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