Labour could be removed from power in Wales for the first time since devolution, according to a concerning new poll that highlights a challenging outlook for Sir Keir Starmer and his party.
The MRP survey conducted by YouGov predicts that Plaid Cymru will become the largest party in the Senedd, winning 43 seats. Nigel Farage’s Reform Party is expected to come in second with 30 seats, while Labour’s support is projected to drop to just 13% of the vote, resulting in approximately 12 seats.
If these predictions come to pass, First Minister Eluned Morgan may lose her seat, delivering a significant political blow to Labour’s long-standing dominance in Wales.
The poll reflects Labour’s recent electoral difficulties, such as the Caerphilly Senedd by-election in October, where the party finished in third place as tactical voting shifted support to Plaid Cymru to prevent Reform from winning. Similar trends have been observed in Gorton and Denton, where the Green Party benefited from left-leaning tactical voting, again pushing Labour into third place.
The survey also indicates a breakthrough for Zack Polanski’s Green Party, which could secure 10 seats in the Senedd under Wales’s proportional representation system—marking a first for the party in the region. Analysts suggest that Plaid Cymru could now consider partnering with the Greens to form a left-wing coalition rather than with Labour, potentially leading to a new progressive Welsh government.
The MRP model shows that both Reform and the Greens gain from Wales’s regional voting system, which allocates seats proportionally rather than purely by constituency, further weakening Labour’s traditional stronghold.
Polanski has previously expressed ambitions to position the Green Party as the leading left-wing party in England and Wales and has signalled a willingness to form a coalition with Plaid Cymru.
The projected decline of Labour in Wales could have broader implications for the party’s leadership. Sir Keir Starmer’s position as Prime Minister may be threatened if Labour loses its Welsh heartland, a stronghold for the party since 1999.
Meanwhile, projections suggest that the Conservatives could be reduced to a single seat and that the Liberal Democrats might be eliminated.
As the Senedd election approaches on May 7, Labour faces a potential historic setback that could reshape Welsh politics for decades to come.
Polanski said: “Right now we’re just focused on winning as many votes as possible so that Reform is kept out. We are in a position to act on our plans for Wales – to tackle the cost of living, fix the housing crisis and improve NHS care. We want Greens to have the strongest possible voice for Wales.”
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh governance centre, told ITV: “The poll also suggests that the race for third place is now firmly between Labour and the Greens. Labour’s position has improved marginally since January, supported by improving underlying evaluations of UK Government performance and a modest recovery in ratings for Keir Starmer from their historic January low.
“The Greens will be encouraged that they have maintained a strong position in Wales, building on their success in England. Notably, their rise does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru’s expense, suggesting the two parties are drawing support from largely separate pools of voters. The results also point clearly to a near-supermajority for progressive parties in the Senedd.”
