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A report seen by the BBC of the Treasury’s internal working calculations shows that strong wage growth could deliver over £400 for pensioners this winter.
Changes in the state for the full state pension will be around £12,000 in 2025/2026 after the 2023 £900 rise.
PA reported that those who retired before 2016 could receive a second state pension which will have a £300 increase and this comes after Labour scrapped the winter fuel allowance for around 10 million pensioners.
Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, said, “For many pensioners, this increase will need to be offset by the removal of the winter fuel payment.
“Only those on pension credit will now receive it, and this will amount to a gap of up to £300 this winter. This will be especially keenly felt by older pensioners on the basic state pension. They receive the largest amount in winter fuel payment but will see a smaller increase in their state pension, as they’re not on the new flat rate.”
She added: “The timing of the rise is also unhelpful for pensioners struggling to make ends meet over the winter. The promise of a spring boost will bring cold comfort to those who are making difficult decisions about whether they can afford to heat their homes in the colder months.”
Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at wealth manager Quilter said: “The news reported today that the triple lock is likely to be uplifted by average earnings next year, with confirmation expected from next week’s average total pay figure, is a significant development for pensioners.”
He added that the triple lock “remains a contentious issue in pension policy, with no government willing to make drastic changes due to the potential backlash from a core voter base.
“Given recent changes to winter fuel payments which spurred immediate calls for a rethink due to the number of people who will struggle to pay their bills this winter as a result, any alterations to the triple lock by Labour seem entirely remote and more so given Rachel Reeves’ recent confirmation that it would stick by the policy.”
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