The Colombian peso continues its positive performance, extending to three consecutive days, driven by a combination of external and internal factors that have supported the currency.
Yesterday, the COP gained strong support due to a 3.8% year-over-year increase in October exports, highlighting greater dynamism in Colombian foreign trade.
Today, the weakness of the U.S. dollar, which has retreated in international markets, is also contributing to the peso’s positive performance.
The export sector has been key to the peso’s recent strength. The agricultural products sector has shown notable growth, with increases in coffee, fruits, and flowers, supported by a rebound in international coffee prices.
This price improvement could continue to strengthen the currency, although there are certain limitations due to the decline in oil prices. Despite this setback, oil remains the country’s main export, and the drop in its prices could limit the peso’s gains.
Additionally, Colombia’s manufacturing sector has shown a relatively positive performance, improving market sentiment toward the country’s economy. On the external front, the resilience of the U.S. economy, Colombia’s main export destination, is a major supporting factor. However, there are risks linked to U.S. trade policy, as concerns about potential tariffs that could negatively impact Colombian exports persist.
The Federal Reserve’s stance also represents a significant risk to the peso. With the U.S. economy showing strong data and potential inflationary pressures tied to Donald Trump’s proposals, a more aggressive monetary policy could strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on the COP. In this regard, the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, to be released tomorrow, will be closely watched by investors. If it reflects higher-than-expected job creation, it could support the USD and apply pressure on the Colombian peso.
In this context, the Colombian peso faces a dynamic interplay of support and risks that could shape its short-term trend, with market attention focused on both domestic economic data and key international events.
