The Nintendo Switch 2 could sell 15 million consoles its first year, analysts say

Industry analysts have great expectations for the next Nintendo console, predicting it will sell as many as 15 million units its first year. The Nintendo Switch 2 saw its first official teaser today, although a full Nintendo Direct won’t happen until April. The company hopes to outsell the original Switch, but given that it has sold 147 million units since 2017 — with a large boost of sales during the lockdown — that’s going to be tough to do.

But it’s possible, especially with an existing base of at least 105 million users, according to analyst George Jijiashvili. He says the most important factor in the success of the Switch 2 is the transition period. “However, the biggest challenge will be managing the transition effectively — convincing users to upgrade to the Switch 2 while ensuring those sticking with the original Switch remain supported and engaged,” he told us.

Since the news broke earlier today, many fans have questioned the naming scheme. The Nintendo Switch 2 sounds rather uninspired versus other suggested names like “Super Nintendo Switch,” but it’s straightforward. Nintendo wanted to avoid another Wii U situation, where many shoppers just thought the Wii U was an upgrade, not a new console.

With no more details expected until April, Jijiashvili tells us Nintendo is still expected to “launch Switch 2 in the first half of 2025, with 14.7m Switch 2 consoles sold through the calendar year.” A different report from Bloomberg suggests Nintendo aims to sell 20 million or more units within the first year, although Jijiashvili says the Switch 2 is likely to lose sales momentum faster than the original.

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He also points out that Nintendo’s advantage with a hybrid console that could be played docked or on-the-go is no longer a consideration since the advent of the Steam Deck and its various spinoffs. The Switch 2 is likely to be a success, if only on account of Nintendo’s first-party titles, but it has to hit the ground running if it wants to outperform its predecessor.