Bitcoin jumped 7.7% on May 20 and is fast approaching the all-time high of $73,794.
The price has been consolidating for more than two months after briefly exceeding the 2021 high of $69,000.
An upside breakout could soon follow, with a target of $100,000 to $120,000 based on the size of historical rallies following a pullback like the one seen in April.
According to Cory Mitchell, an analyst with Trading.biz, who has studied every major rally in Bitcoin and broken it down statistically.
Mitchell said, “After a larger decline, like in 2022, when Bitcoin moves back to the prior all-time high, it often stays there for a while. In 2017 it oscillated near the prior 2013 all-time high for four months before resuming higher.
“In 2020, upon nearing the 2017 all-time high, the price chopped around for a month before continuing higher. In 2024 we’ve been hovering near 2021 high of $69,000 for two and a half months
A break higher out of this sideways price action could occur very soon. This is still a Bitcoin bull market. Average rallies, following a pullback like the one in April, have historically been followed by a median rally percentage of 75% (average is 91%). If Bitcoin has a historically typical rally off of the May 1 swing low, the target is $100,000 to $110,000”
The May 1 swing low was $56,500. If a median rally were to ensue, the price would be near $100,000 which is 75% above the May 1 low price. If an average rally were to ensue, the target would be near $110,000, which is 91% above the May swing low price.
The following chart shows the price path of Bitcoin in US dollars since late 2021, courtesy of TradingView.
These are typical moves higher, following a pullback, that have occurred in prior Bitcoin bull markets before another 20% or greater decline occurs. In other words, if Bitcoin continues to act as it has in prior bull markets, it could reach $100,000 or above before having another 20% decline.
There are no guarantees this move higher will result in a historically typical rally of 75% to 91%. Averages are composed of many rallies that were smaller and many that were bigger. This current rally, which is already 25% above the May 1 swing low, could run well above $110,000, or falter before reaching $100,000.
The historical averages provide a framework for what Bitcoin has done in the past but don’t necessarily indicate what it will do in the future.
