The Bitcoin price ended the past week with a 22% increase, representing a 310% surge from the low of $15,479.
This development seems to confirm the possibility of Bitcoin stabilizing above $60,000.
Currently trading around 10% below its all-time high of $69,138, investors eagerly await BTC to overcome current resistance.
In my view, the rise to $65,590 faced only minor obstacles as liquidity flows reached Bitcoin investment funds, totaling $10 billion in 2024, contributing to this continuous uptrend.
Typically, Bitcoin prices decrease in the days leading up to the halving event. I anticipate a decline in Bitcoin price to $45,000, possibly $42,000, or even $37,000, especially with the Federal Reserve maintaining high-interest rates.
The current surge in Bitcoin is driven by institutional capital inflows, and the potential rise to a yearly high of $65,555 is fueled by expectations of demand for exchange-traded funds among market participants.
I believe that prolonged high interest rates harm the economy. When central banks intentionally maintain high interest rates during a phase known as QT (Quantitative Tightening) to slow economic activity and control inflation, they achieve their goal of reducing inflation. However, it has serious side effects, such as the potential for a recession.
The UK and Japan have already announced they are in a recession. With other countries confirming economic recessions, markets could return to normal. Therefore, a correction in Bitcoin’s currency, possibly reaching $45,000 or $42,000, is likely fair.
I think this downturn is logical before the scheduled BTC halving event in April 2024, potentially resulting in a correction in Bitcoin prices. Three previous Bitcoin halving events witnessed a significant price drop about 30 days before the event, followed by an increase in the original price in the months and weeks after the mining reward halving.
If history repeats itself, there is a possibility of a short-term decline, but this time may be different. It’s important to note that the Spot Bitcoin ETF has changed the typical halving scenario. Continuous demand from institutional investors could sustain ongoing upward momentum, unlike previous halving events.
The persistent upward trend is largely driven by institutional entities, with retail traders remaining cautious. This is an unusual occurrence in previous halving cycles and could positively impact the pre-event price this time.
