Bitcoin has rallied 35% off the January 23 swing low of $38,505, signalling that the next rally in this Bitcoin bull market is underway with a target in the $68,000 region. The current price is just below $52,000.
Cory Mitchell, an analyst with Trading.biz, has studied every bull market in Bitcoin, including how big pullbacks tend to be, and the size of the rallies that follow those pullbacks.
“After analyzing every bull market of the last decade, I found that the average and median pullback is 27%. I only included drops of more than 20% since smaller drops are so frequent. The average rally following one of these declines—a decline of 21% occurred in January— is 91% and the median rally percentage is 75% off that pullback low.
That puts a target near $68,000 based on the median rally percentage, and near $73,000 based on the 90% average rally. These rally percentages are based on how far the price tends to move up before another 20% or greater pullback.
These are averages, and only paint an approximate picture of how the uptrend may unfold. Some rallies are smaller than average, while others are much larger. Which side of average the current rally will fall under is yet to be seen.”
Since Bitcoin started its rally in late 2022, here is how the pullbacks and rallies have unfolded so far.
- 63% rally from Nov. 2022 to Feb. 2023
- 23% pullback from Feb. to March 2023
- 59% rally from March to April 2023
- 20% pullback from April to June 2023
- 29% rally from June to July 2023 (failed to break out of range)
- 22% pullback from July to Sept. 2023
- 97% rally from Sept. 2023 to Jan. 2024
- 22% pullback in Jan. 2024
- 35% rally since
Even how the bull market has unfolded so far reveals that the pullbacks and rallies don’t always align with the averages. Pullbacks during this bull market have been slightly smaller than average, but so have a few of the rallies, such as 59% and 29%, while one has been larger at 97%.
Another statistic to consider is how much Bitcoin tends to rally overall, following a 70% or greater decline.
70% to 85% declines mark major turning points over the last decade. Thousand percent or greater uptrends followed the 83% decline into the 2013 bottom, the 78% decline into the 2015 bottom, and the 72% decline into the 2020 bottom.
Cory Mitchell says “Bitcoin has rallied 235% off the 2022 bottom. The next smallest rally off a 70% or greater decline is 345% following the 2018 bottom. If this current uptrend were to meet that prior minimum price objective, the target is near $70,000 before another big decline ensues.”
Once again, we don’t know what version of history will repeat. The uptrend could unfold like many prior ones, rallying a thousand percent or more and pushing the Bitcoin price above $150,000, or it could falter relatively soon and be one of the smaller rallies in history.
These are statistics, not a strategy. Yet, hopefully, they help you understand how Bitcoin tends to move so can plan accordingly.
