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Rishi Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire is expected to come under major threat at the ballot box in the upcoming General Election.
Research from OLBG has determined that the Prime Minister’s position as MP for the traditionally safe Tory seat is under threat.
Labour candidate Tom Wilson is being given a 36.4% chance of winning, but Sunak is still backed as favourite to hold his seat with a 71.4% chance of victory, with the data based off of odds collated and converted to probabilities by OLBG.
The rural constituency, once held by former Conservative leader William Hague, has been in Tory hands since 1910, and was held throughout the last Labour government from 1997-2010.
Having been in the seat since 2015, Sunak has made a rapid ascent to the head of government, but could become the first ever sitting Prime Minister to be unseated in an unprecedented situation.
Labour are currently strongly favoured to secure an overall majority, with the OLBG calculations projecting a 97.1% chance of Keir Starmer’s party securing the 326 seats required to form a government.
As part of the research, OLBG have calculated the chances of various members of recent cabinets of losing their seats, with the data for various high-profile Conservatives below.
Jeremy Hunt (23.1%) and Penny Mordaunt (36.4%) are under particular threat for their seats, with both being given under a 40% chance of retaining their place at the heart of government.
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