Crude has had a relatively subdued week, with front WTI and Brent both trading in a relatively tight range.
Once again, market participants have run through a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ geopolitical trade, this time amid news of Libyan output and exports being suspended amid ongoing tumult in the country, with the brief upside seen as the news broke fading rather rapidly.
This, again, speaks to how crude bulls cannot rely solely on geopolitical tensions to spur a durable upside move, instead requiring a sustained pick-up in demand, which remains elusive at present. A quiet end to the week could well be in store, ahead of Labor Day weekend in the US, and amid a relatively barren economic docket, with next Friday’s US jobs report the next significant catalyst to watch, amid the continuing debate over a 25bp or a 50bp Fed cut at the September meeting.
