Crude prices opened the week relatively flat while political uncertainty in the U.S. and the Middle East could continue to affect prices.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including volatile Israel-Hamas clashes and stalled peace talks, could remain a driving factor for oil prices due to concerns over regional stability.
Market sentiment was supported by a US inflation report for June that came in below expectations, raising hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction.
This could continue to support oil prices and limit its downside risk, given increased prospects of a rate cut in September and less pressure on the US economy. However, challenges persisted as China’s crude imports in June declined, highlighting ongoing market difficulties. Independent refiners scaling back production due to narrow profit margins further subdued fuel demand, adding to these challenges.
Later today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech could influence the dollar and introduce volatility in crude prices. Additionally, the market is awaiting Tuesday’s release of US retail sales and crude stock change data. Market consensus suggests June’s retail sales figures may remain flat. Persistent softness in US retail sales could weigh on crude prices in the short term.
