In the wake of a gruelling by-election in Caerphilly, both Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch have taken a three-point hit to their approval ratings this week, according to the latest polling from Opinium. Starmer languishes on -45, while Badenoch sits at net -17.
Reform leader Nigel Farage has also declined in popularity this week, down to -13 (down 7 points).
This is the ninth consecutive Opinium poll in which Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has been on net -40 or below, suggesting his unpopularity has remained consistently strong since early August.
However, Reform continues to lead on voting intention among the public at 30% (-2), followed by Labour on 20% (-2).
The Conservatives are unchanged at 18%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% (+1) and the Greens 12% (+2).
Tories lead Labour on economy
With a month to go before the Autumn Budget, the Conservatives now appear to have an edge over Labour on five out of six key economic issues polled by Opinium, with Labour’s lead on all issues declining since the last time the question was asked.
The public express greater faith in the Tories on setting tax levels, with a 6-point lead for the Conservatives over Labour. However, neither party commands strong confidence overall, with “neither” the most frequent response to who the public trust most on the economy.
The only economic issue where Labour leads among the public is on improving public services (+9%), though trust in both parties remains limited.
Public split over indefinite leave to remain
In the wake of new Tory proposals that would strip some people of indefinite leave to remain (ILR), over half (54%) of voters think that the government should have the right to withdraw ILR if clear reasons are provided. Seven in ten (70%) current Reform voters agree with this position, compared to 64% of Conservative voters and 49% of Labour voters. By contrast, only 22% of voters believe ILR should be permanent once granted, while a quarter (24%) say they don’t know.
Among those who believe the government should be able to withdraw ILR, people are most in favour in cases where someone poses a threat to national security (87%) or commits a serious crime (87%). Two thirds (66%) think ILR could be withdrawn for failing to meet residency requirements, though only 30% support revocation for those claiming benefits.
Three in ten (30%) people believe ILR holders should always have to meet a minimum income level, while 26% think that should be the case only if that condition was part of their original application. Nearly one in five (18%) believe that no income condition should apply once ILR is granted.
The public are particularly split on what should happen with ILR going forward. Nearly a quarter (23%) think the scheme should be kept as it is, while two in five (40%) think it should be stopped or ended. Of those, 28% think the scheme should be stopped but existing holders should keep their status. Only 12% say the scheme should end entirely, including for current holders, with three in ten (30%) unsure.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “Downing Street remains in dire straits. Our ninth poll in a row shows Keir Starmer at net -40 or worse, which is an incredible run of unpopularity for any prime minister. The Conservatives may spot early green shoots in perceptions of their economic competence, but both major parties still have a long climb before they can challenge Reform’s commanding lead.”
