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The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have said on Thursday that Vladimir Putin is preparing for a “large-scale” conflict with NATO.
The ISW said that according to some financial, military and economic indicators this identifies that Moscow are preparing for the long game.
The Polish President warned on Wednesday that Putin is moving into an economic war climate and could strike the West within less than two years.
In the short term conflict could break out, however this is not “imminently” but more likely on a “shorter time line” than was some analysts have previously claimed.
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The analysts at the ISW said, “Putin’s attempts to set conditions to stabilise Russia’s economy and finances are most likely part of… preparations for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO and not just for a protracted war in Ukraine.”
On Wednesday the Polish President Andrzej Duda said that Moscow are preparing their economy for war “with the intention of being able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027.”
On 9 February, Danish defence minister Troels Lund Poulsen’s claimed that “new intelligence indicates that Russia may attempt to attack a NATO country within three-five years.”
The ISW said, “Ongoing personnel changes within the Russian MoD may be further indicators of Russia’s preparations for a conflict in the long-term.”
Putin being re-elected will help with “logistical issues to support the ongoing conventional military reforms, setting conditions for longer-term efforts to build out Russia’s conventional capabilities.”
This week the former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace warned that “people need to wake up” as the British armed forces fighting in Ukraine “cannot be ruled out”
This is echoes what President Robert Fico of Slovakia and the French President Emmanuel Macron have said.
In a paper published by the New Bletchley Network former security chiefs have warned that the UK must “genuinely prepare for war” to be a credible deterrent.
The report warns that both the regular army and the reserves has shrunk “far below national critical mass,” and the government are being urged to reverse this.
The former security chiefs are calling for a New Model Army that will turn the British Army into a credible and respected force, which comes after the Defence Secretary Grant Shapps warned that the UK is now in a “pre-war” phase.
The report added, “Our land forces and reserves could be said to have fallen far below national critical mass.
“This must be reversed and the relationship between size and technology must be better understood and articulated.”
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