Gold remained close to record highs on Thursday, supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and safe-haven flows amid the ongoing US government shutdown.
The ADP report showed US private-sector employment contracted for a second consecutive month in September, the sharpest decline since early 2023, reinforcing views that the Fed will keep easing into year-end.
Markets continue to price in two additional cuts, in October and December.
The partial government shutdown has forced the Labour Department to delay the September nonfarm payrolls report, depriving policymakers of a key data point ahead of the Fed’s late-October meeting. This disruption, coupled with partisan deadlock in Washington, has fuelled additional defensive positioning.
At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that persistent price pressures warrant caution in easing too aggressively. As such, the next inflation data could be pivotal as a critical guide for policy. Persistent inflation could benefit US Treasury yields and weigh on the bullion.
Geopolitical risks continue to bolster bullion. In the Middle East and Eastern Europe, tensions remain high.
