The high street bakery chain Greggs has announced sales rose but the unusually hot weather in July and consumer confidence in the economy is to blame for the slowdown in growth.
In the third quarter of 2025 Greggs reported a 6.1% rise in sales in the 13 weeks to 27 September, down by 7% in the first half of the year.
Greggs has opened 130 new stores over the year and 73 closed meaning that there was 57 net new openings.
“We now expect around 120 net new shop openings, slightly lower than our previous estimate, reflecting the timing of opportunities,” the company said.
“The board’s expectation for the full year outcome is unchanged and we remain clear on the strategic opportunities that lie ahead,” Greggs concluded.
Chief executive Roisin Currie said, “When it gets to about 25 degrees you start to see customers eating less, but when it gets to 30 degrees everything is completely different, you see people out in pub gardens and parks and they just want to drink not eat.”
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at brokers AJ Bell, said, “The fact life hasn’t got any worse for Greggs was enough to breathe some life into the share price. It says trading has improved over the past few months, it is getting cost pressures under control, and full-year guidance has been maintained.
“Don’t be fooled into thinking the king of sausage rolls is sitting upright on its throne, with nothing to worry about. The share price jump is a mixture of relief and a short squeeze, not a celebration of significant progress.
“Like-for-likes sales are still pedestrian despite ongoing product innovation that should have drawn in the crowds. There is a nagging feeling that Greggs is growing too fast in the face of fierce headwinds.”
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, at investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown said, “Even sausage rolls are sweating as Greggs feels the heat.
“Hot weather and a softer consumer backdrop meant third-quarter growth slowed, raising question marks around expectations for the full year.
“Management isn’t waving the white flag just yet, with the full-year outlook unchanged. But this quarter was about weathering the bumps rather than breaking records – a far cry from the Greggs of 2024.”
