UK grocery inflation rose to 4.3% in February, ending four consecutive months of declines and adding further financial pressure on households.
According to data from market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator, inflation increased from 4% in January.
Shoppers delayed making Valentine’s Day purchases until the last minute. Notably, nearly 12% of households opted for premium meal deals on Friday evenings, with approximately £39 million spent on high-end meal deals priced at £10 or more, seven times higher than the previous week.
As Shrove Tuesday approached, demand for pancake products surged, with pre-made pancake mix sales rising by 114% week-on-week. Households making pancakes from scratch paid about 42p more than the previous year, with the cost of basic batter ingredients reaching £7.77—roughly 6% higher year-on-year.
While overall UK food inflation has eased from peak levels in 2023, price increases continue to affect discretionary grocery spending. Economists note that consumers remain sensitive to promotional pricing, with premium and convenience products outperforming basic goods. Retailers face the challenge of balancing cost recovery with demand recovery. This trend suggests that relief from grocery price increases may come gradually rather than rapidly.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: “Looking ahead to Easter, shoppers will notice that chocolate prices remain high, up 9.3% year on year.
“While this is still a significant rise, the pace of inflation in the category is beginning to ease and is now at its lowest level since September 2025.”
McKevitt added: “More affluent families in London and the south east of England are still the most likely to shop for groceries online.
“However, the channel’s appeal is broadening, with shoppers from a wider range of economic backgrounds increasingly drawn to its convenience.”
