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Family holidays are set to become significantly more expensive this year after jet fuel prices in Europe doubled to more than $1,600 per tonne, driven by disruptions to global energy supplies following the conflict in Iran.
The surge — from around $800 per tonne in late February — threatens to add £40 or more to the cost of a typical trip, with airlines warning that rising fuel bills will inevitably be passed on to passengers.
At the heart of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 40pc of Europe’s jet fuel supply passes. Disruption to this vital route has sent kerosene prices to levels not seen since the 2022 energy shock triggered by the war in Ukraine.
Industry figures say airlines are already under severe strain. EasyJet, for example, operates on margins of just £6 to £7 per seat — meaning even modest increases in fuel costs can wipe out profits.
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The airline had previously hedged fuel at around $715 per tonne, but with spot prices now nearing $1,850, those protections are beginning to expire. Chief executive Kenton Jarvis warned that fares are likely to rise if volatility continues.
“Fuel has been very volatile over the last few weeks,” he said. “If it remains at this level, prices will become elevated. I would recommend booking as early as possible.”
Other carriers are already acting. Air France-KLM has increased long-haul fares by around €50 per return journey, while United Airlines has warned ticket prices could rise by as much as 20pc. In Asia, Cathay Pacific is introducing fuel surcharges, adding roughly $200 to long-haul tickets.
The timing is particularly acute for families. The average Easter break already costs more than £1,200, and budgets are under pressure from rising household bills. An additional £40-£50 per person in fuel-related costs risks pushing holidays further out of reach for many.
Demand is already showing signs of strain. Bookings to destinations closer to the conflict — including Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt — have weakened, while routes to Spain, Greece and Portugal remain more resilient.
Industry leaders warn that the outlook depends heavily on how long the disruption in the Gulf continues. Michael O’Leary said prolonged instability would have increasingly severe consequences for fares and demand.
For now, travel experts say the message is clear: book early or pay more. With fuel hedges expiring and airlines facing sharply higher costs, the era of cheaper last-minute deals may be rapidly coming to an end.
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