A majority of the public believe that a future Labour government would be “likely” to increase Capital gains tax (60%), Inheritance tax (56%) or Income tax (53%).
New research from Savanta suggests that tax rises under a future Keir Starmer government appear to be “priced in” among voters, with a Labour government seen as more “likely” than the Conservatives to raise every potential tax listed:
- Capital gains tax (60% Labour, 44% Conservative)
- Inheritance tax (56% Labour, 42% Conservative)
- Income tax (53% Labour, 48% Conservative)
- National insurance (50% Labour, 44% Conservative)
- Stamp duty tax (50% Labour, 44% Conservative)
Only on VAT do voters believe that Labour (48%) and Conservatives (46%) are broadly equally as likely to raise.
Significant proportions of Labour voters say think they that after the election, a Labour government is “likely” to increase:
- Capital gains tax (56% of Labour voters)
- Inheritance tax (51%)
- National insurance (42%)
- Income tax (42%)
Labour voters are also more likely to believe that a victorious Conservative Party would increase major taxes as well, including VAT (62%), Income tax (60%) and National insurance (55%).
Undecided voters are more likely to believe that a future Labour government would increase taxes than a Conservative government, such as Capital gains tax (57% Labour, 26% Conservative) and Inheritance tax (56% Labour, 28% Conservative)
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “Our research suggests that it’s increasingly priced in among the electorate that a future Labour government may well increase some taxes, including those they have categorically ruled out, such as national insurance.”
There may well be different reasons for the public believing Labour will increase some taxes, with Rishi Sunak hoping that Conservative attack lines are cutting through. But our findings also suggest that natural Labour voters believe a future Starmer government will increase taxes on businesses and the wealthy, potentially because they simply think he should.”
