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The Chilean peso faces an uncertain outlook as the market evaluates the 2.3% year-over-year economic growth in October.
This performance reflects an economy showing signs of recovery but also raises questions about its medium-term sustainability.
One of the main drivers of growth has been the commerce and services sector, which posted a significant increase of 6.2%, thanks to the rebound in machinery sales and dynamism in retail trade, especially through online platforms.
These positive figures are also complemented by a rebound in consumer spending, which could provide additional support to the Chilean peso. Moreover, the solid copper production data released on Friday strengthens the currency’s potential, given the importance of the red metal to the country’s economy.
However, the seasonally adjusted growth of just 0.4% in key sectors, such as goods production and trade, raises doubts about the sustainability of the consumer rebound. This moderation suggests that a potential slowdown could limit the appreciation margin of the Chilean peso. Additionally, the global economic environment also generates uncertainty.
Donald Trump, who leads the Republican polls for the 2024 elections, has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries, including China, Chile’s main trading partner. This protectionist rhetoric has strengthened the US dollar, exerting pressure on the Chilean peso and raising concerns about the impact on copper exports to the Asian giant.
In the short term, the peso could experience volatility, especially with the release of key US economic indicators this week. These data points could significantly influence market sentiment, as any additional strengthening of the dollar could exacerbate the pressure on the Chilean peso.
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