Nearly half (44%) of Conservative councillors believe the calibre of the remaining Conservative leadership candidates are not good enough to win a general election, according to new research from Savanta.
One in four (41%) say the calibre of contenders is good enough to win an election.
Savanta’s findings, as membership ballot papers begin to drop in letterboxes this week, suggests “a significant proportion of Conservative councillors say they’ll be boycotting” the contest between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick to be the next Conservative leader.
When asked their voting preferences, Badenoch (31%) has a slight edge over Jenrick (23%) among councillors. Three in ten (28%) say they are undecided, and notably one in seven (15%) say they will not vote. For comparison, when Savanta did similar research in July 2022 ahead of the Rishi Sunak versus Liz Truss contest, just 5% of councillors said they would not vote.
James Cleverly (34%) is the clear favourite among councillors of those who made it to the first stage of the contest, followed by Tugendhat (16%) and Badenoch (16%). Jenrick came fourth (14%), with just 2% of councillors saying they would not vote if all six of the original candidates were on the member’s ballot.
Councillors are evenly split over whether they think Boris Johnson would make a better (41%) or worse (40%) leader of the Conservative party than Kemi Badenoch. However, councillors say Johnson would be better (47%) than Robert Jenrick, with 34% saying Johnson would be worse.
But councillors are more united in the view that Nigel Farage would not be welcome in the Conservative Party (64%), with just a quarter (27%) saying he would be.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “Our research suggests a deep well of dissatisfaction among Conservative councillors about the choice on offer to them in the leadership contest. Councillors are the grassroots of any major party, and their views are usually a useful indication of how the wider membership may well be feeling.”
“In fact, a significant proportion of Conservative councillors say they’ll be boycotting the contest, with one in seven saying they will not vote. This is particularly notable, as it is three times higher than for the Sunak vs Truss contest in 2022, and chimes with our other findings where nearly half say the quality of candidates are not good enough to win a general election.”
