Crude oil prices were slightly lower today, with WTI hovering around the USD 57.5 level. Price action has been choppy and the rebounds have been struggling to extend, leaving crude oil prices on track for a weekly decline of more than 4%.
The market could remain under pressure against a bearish medium-term outlook.
The bigger driver remains oversupply expectations into 2026. While the IEA trimmed its surplus projections, it still sees an oversupply of 3.84 million bpd in 2026, a gap that keeps sentiment bearish and rebounds under pressure.
However, traders have also been reacting to a certain extent to fresh supply risk headlines. In this regard, the United States is escalating pressure on Venezuela, which could affect the latter’s oil flows. After seizing a tanker, Washington is preparing further interdictions and has also imposed new measures targeting Venezuela-linked tankers, raising shipping and insurance risks and potentially forcing the country to offer deeper discounts on its barrels. Disruptions in Eastern Europe are also adding to the concerns and could contribute to the volatility.
