Matchbook’s plan to introduce a UK-facing predictions market is no longer framed as a distant “coming soon”. With January almost over, the betting exchange is in rollout mode, pitching a yes-or-no-style interface to a UK audience while positioning Britain as the first live proving ground for technology it plans to take to the United States.
The concept is familiar to anyone who has watched the surge of US “event contracts” over the last year, contracts priced like probabilities rather than traditional odds. What is new is the attempt to package that format within the UK’s established gambling framework, and to do so within a business that already uses exchange-style pricing. The timing also lands amid a tightening tax backdrop for remote gambling and a regulatory debate in the US about where trading ends and wagering begins.
A prediction-market front end, built on exchange DNA
Matchbook says its predictions product is engineered for the kind of markets Britain already treats as mainstream gambling, politics, entertainment, and sport. Instead of fractional odds, the interface is expected to present a percentage-style probability for “Yes” or “No” outcomes, the design language common across US prediction apps.
The company’s Chief Strategy Officer, Jesse May, has described the shift as a user-interface change built on familiar mechanics:
“Prediction Markets are a fantastic way of presenting our market-leading pricing to customers in a more understandable user interface; all powered by the strength of the Matchbook betting exchange engine.”
The business model remains exchange-led, customers trade against each other, prices move with activity, and the operator earns commission. The bet looks different, but the plumbing is recognisably Matchbook.
Where the January rollout stands
Coverage early in the month described Matchbook as prepared to launch in January, and framed the UK as the first step before a likely US push. BonusFinder was among the outlets that set out that January positioning.
In the final days of January, the more useful question is operational: what is live, and what is still being staged. As of January 26, DeFi Rate reported that the UK platform is not yet launched, even as Matchbook markets the technology through a B2B-facing “Matchbook Predictions” website for other operators.
That gap is not unusual for exchange products, which rely on liquidity as much as on software. A soft launch, seeding, and controlled testing can be the difference between a smooth first week and a screen full of noisy prices.
For now, Matchbook is openly describing the product and its ambitions, but public reporting still places the consumer-facing UK switch-on on the near side of “imminent” rather than in the past.
Regulation is familiar, but the economics are shifting
Part of the appeal of a UK first move is definitional clarity. Matchbook already operates under a Gambling Commission framework, and the predictions format is presented as a new wrapper on activity regulators already understand.
But the fiscal backdrop is tightening. A House of Commons Library briefing on Budget 2025 measures says the government raises remote gaming duty from 21% to 40% from 1 April 2026 and creates a new 25% remote betting rate within General Betting Duty from 1 April 2027, with UK horseracing bets excluded from the new remote rate.
The Treasury’s government response on remote gambling taxation reiterates those rates. It frames them as part of a package aimed at raising revenue and shifting incentives away from higher-harm products.
The regulator has also demonstrated a willingness to sanction exchange operators where controls fall short. In 2020, the Gambling Commission published the reasons for suspending Triplebet’s licence, trading as Matchbook, citing social responsibility and anti-money laundering failings and a £740,000 fine.
Integrity and market conduct questions
Prediction markets often sell themselves on price discovery, the idea that a market price can aggregate information. The same claim raises an obvious tension: if information moves prices, how do platforms limit the influence of non-public or commercially sensitive information?
BonusFinder’s January write-up flagged those integrity questions in the context of the recent growth of prediction markets. In Britain, consumer protection rules already focus on fairness and transparency, but the issue still travels with the format.
Competition and distribution, including easyBet
Matchbook is not introducing politics or novelty betting to the UK; that terrain is crowded. The pitch is a contract-style interface and a low-commission exchange model presented in a more finance-fluent way.
Several reports also link the same technology to a white-label deployment for easyBet, the sports betting brand associated with easyGroup founder Stelios Haji-Ioannou.
If predictions are delivered through that route as well, the launch becomes a distribution play as much as a product play. Matchbook supplies the rails, while consumer brands supply attention and reach.
In short, Matchbook’s predictions market story now reads as an active late-January rollout rather than a distant concept. The company is marketing the product and linking it to US ambitions, yet, as late as January 26, it still describes the UK consumer platform as not yet launched. The next signal is not the headline date, but whether the initial markets arrive with enough liquidity, clarity, and regulatory comfort to turn “prediction market” from a buzzword into a sustainable UK product line.
Please play responsibly. For more information and advice visit https://www.begambleaware.org
Content is not intended for an audience under 18 years of age
