For the first time ever this election, Forecast UK, one of the most successful election models in 2019 and 2017, is predicting that the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s chance of retaining his seat have fallen below 50%.
The Forecast UK model shows Sunak with only a 48.7% chance of winning Richmond and Northallerton, in a seat where he had a majority in 2019 of 24,000.
The Labour challenger Tom Wilson has a 43.2% chance and the Reform candidate Lee Martin has an 8% chance. The fact that the Labour candidate is so close to Sunak in his chance to win the seat is an indication that the constituency is on a knife-edge and the Prime Minister may be the biggest casualty of this election.
In 2017, Forecast UK was the most accurate of all the prediction models, despite the polling errors in that election. In 2019, Forecast UK came second out of a much longer list of models, and had a final prediction very close to the exit poll released at 10pm.
Peter Ould, founder of Forecast UK, said “Our latest daily model shows just how dramatic this election is shaping up to be. When even the Prime Minister’s safe seat is on a knife-edge, you know that July 4th is going to be full of surprises.”
Ould added, “It will be fascinating to see the next round of MRP polls and whether they also indicate a tightening of the race in Sunak’s seat. We should look to see if the Prime Minister spends time in Richmond and Northallerton as that will be another indicator that the Conservatives are worried that Labour will win the biggest prize of all next month.”
Other features of the latest Forecast UK poll are a tightening of the race in Scotland as the SNP recover from a disastrous first few weeks of the campaign, and clear evidence that the Liberal Democrats are set to gain a number of seats in Southern England.
