Advance estimates show the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.0% in Q2 2025, beating expectations and reversing Q1’s contraction.
The rebound was largely driven by a sharp drop in imports, following the Q1 spike as firms frontloaded ahead of new tariffs.
While distortions continue to cloud the headline GDP figures, early signs suggest US trade policy is proving less disruptive than feared.
With a continually resilient labour market and easing inflation concerns, the US economy may well avoid significant pain, though we have yet to see the full effect of tariff pass through. In response, Cebr has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast up from 1.4% to 1.6%.
