UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves needs to raise her fiscal buffer fivefold to have a better-than-even chance of avoiding more tax rises and spending cuts in the coming years, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
The influential think tank says she may need to find as much as £22 billion at the Budget next month just to restore the razor-thin £9.9 billion margin she had in March.
“For more than four months, deVere has been warning that tax hikes are coming in Rachel Reeves’ November Budget. Those who have UK assets and delay taking advice now risk being caught out when the new measures take effect,” says Nigel Green, chief executive of global financial advisory giant deVere Group.
“The Chancellor is boxed in. Borrowing costs are high, growth is anaemic, and the fiscal headroom she inherited has almost vanished. This leaves little room for anything except higher taxes,” says Nigel Green.
“This isn’t about political preference ; it’s arithmetic. Debt servicing is swallowing record sums because rates remain elevated, and the government’s spending commitments are extensive.
“With limited options to borrow or cut, the Treasury will go where the money is: capital, property, investment income and pensions.”
He says the market signals are already flashing red.
“The gilt market is nervous, sterling is under pressure, and investors are repositioning ahead of the Budget.
“These are classic signs that the fiscal burden is about to shift towards asset holders. It’s happening in slow motion right now, and it will accelerate the moment the Chancellor speaks on 26 November.
“Anyone with exposure to UK assets should assume that changes to capital gains tax, dividend allowances, inheritance thresholds or pension reliefs are not just possible but probable,” he adds.
“Governments always test language carefully before they act. When ministers decline to give categorical assurances, that tells you everything.”
Nigel Green warns that the psychological impact of new taxes will extend far beyond those directly affected.
“Confidence is fragile. Hitting savers and retirees sends the wrong message at the wrong time. It discourages investment, reduces liquidity in property and equity markets, and damages long-term growth potential. You can’t build a productive economy by penalising those who provide its capital.”
He says history offers a clear lesson. “Every period of fiscal strain in modern British history — from the retrenchment of the 1940s to the allowance freezes of the 2010s — has seen retirement savings and wealth accumulation targeted first. The government will again frame this as fairness, but the real motive is revenue. It’s the path of least resistance.”
Nigel Green urges immediate action. “Waiting until after the Budget to react will be too late. There are legitimate, fully compliant strategies that can protect wealth before new rules are announced.
“This means maximising allowances, restructuring investments for efficiency, and exploring international options where appropriate. These steps take time and expertise — and the window is closing.”
He also highlights the broader consequence of inaction. “We’re moving into a higher-tax era. Those who plan will still have opportunities to grow under the new regime. Those who don’t will likely find their wealth steadily eroded by policy drift.”
“The global context makes this even more urgent,” he adds. “Energy prices remain volatile, the US economy is cooling, and Europe is flirting with stagnation. The UK cannot rely on external growth to fill its fiscal gaps. It’s why the pressure to raise domestic revenue is now overwhelming.”
Nigel Green concludes: “Act now. Review every element of your financial position with professional guidance. Assume that the government’s need for revenue will outweigh its political caution. It’s not alarmism; it’s preparation.”
