Savanta’s first MRP this election campaign for the Daily Telegraph projects that Labour is on to win a historic 516 seats, with the Conservatives falling to a record low 53 Members of Parliament.
Conducted in partnership with election modelling site Electoral Calculus, Savanta’s projections would give the Labour Party a majority of 382, with the Conservative Party fighting it out with the Liberal Democrats to be the Official Opposition, projected to win 50 seats.
The implied vote shares from this model would give Labour a 21-point lead, with Labour on 44% of the vote, Conservatives on 23%, Reform UK on 13%, Liberal Democrats on 12%, Greens on 4%, SNP on 3%, Plaid Cymru on 1% and Other / Independents less than 1% nationally.
Under this model, the SNP would fall to just eight seats, with Reform UK failing to gain any MPs and the Greens losing their one MP.
Nearly 200 seats have less than 7.5 percentage points between the parties in first and second place, deemed as ‘too close to call’. These include Rishi Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton seat and James Cleverly in Braintree.
Other Senior Conservatives, including leadership contenders such as Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps, look set to lose their seats.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “These are figures are stark, but are a consequence of the almost unique set of events conspiring against the Conservative Party this election – from the short campaign effects of the D-Day gaffe and the rise of Reform UK, to the longer-term brand challenges going back to the mini budget and Partygate.
“We’ve been conditioned for so long to believe the Conservative Party, as the natural party of government, will always be a major political force. But our MRP projections – in partnership with Electoral Calculus – suggests that they will be fighting with the Liberal Democrats to be the Official Opposition, with Labour on for a historic majority.
“We currently rate nearly 200 seats as too close to call, meaning just small changes could have a huge impact on the outcome of this election. MRPs, just like any other type of poll, have their strengths and weaknesses. For instance, they won’t pick up unique local dynamics – but they do give a very good sense of how national trends could play out at a local level.”
